I know this whole thread is kind of moot now, but for anyone still around... I just caught something on the lease agreement I dug out from mid-2020 and feel really, really stupid. So stupid I'm not going to even go back and look at my old posts to see what I was saying and thinking at the time.
If my cap cost reduction shows roughly $8,600 (what I remember negotiating with the dealer) with the adjusted cap cost of $42,000 (car was over $50k msrp), and the lease rebate of $10,200 is shown on the other side applied against the cap cost reduction, I basically didn't get it, right? My payoff was well over $40,000.
I guess I should have come to this realization when I put the payoff through, but I must have thought it was just taxes and fees and stuff in there. I had the expected "lease payment" matched to the penny, but in the end they still got me, I guess. I always think I'm a pro at this stuff, and every stinkin' time I learn I'm not. I'm almost glad the next car I'm buying is at MSRP because I am so done with this!